Even though electric drive technologies have been around for a while now, they have predominantly been employed in personal vehicles, whereas commercial vehicles have yet to catch on. There are a few reasons why there are so few electric commercial vehicles on U.S. roads, as well as around the globe, but most of them have to do with the high purchase price of plug-in vehicles. For many fleet operators, operating a fleet of commercial vehicles is not financially viable, as it requires a considerable upfront investment. But, a recent study says that demand for electric trucks and buses will grow substantially over the next couple of years, primarily thanks to increased environmental concerns.
Navigant Research conducted a study that analyzes market data for medium and heavy duty commercial all-electric, plug-in hybrid, and hybrid electric vehicles, and concluded that sales of electric trucks and buses will see a tenfold increase by 2023.
According to the report, named Electric Drive Trucks and Buses, sales of these commercial vehicles globally will rise from under 16,000 in 2014 to almost 160,000 in 2023, a prediction based on an analysis of the global market for hybrid-electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, and battery-electric vehicles.
However, the report also says that even though electric commercial vehicles will gain some more traction in the next decade or so, their market share will remain pretty low, jumping from 0.4% in 2014 to 2.9% in 2023. The biggest growth is expected to be reported in Japan, where electric trucks and buses will reach a 21.1% market share. This is because Japan is one of the countries that invest heavily in the proper infrastructure for electric vehicles and implement other measures that encourage consumers to buy these alternative fuel vehicles in an effort to reduce carbon emissions and improve air quality in urban areas.
The researchers say that in addition to the high initial upfront costs associated with electric vehicles, their use in commercial applications has been hindered by their size and weight. Plug-in vehicles are powered by pretty heavy battery packs, that increase a vehicle’s weight substantially, and take up a lot of space that could otherwise be used for storage, which is why electric trucks and buses have significantly lower storage and payload capacities. But, electric drive technology continues to advance, with batteries getting smaller, lighter and more efficient, and these advances are expected to be implemented in commercial vehicles on a larger scale in the future.
The report also says that electric commercial vehicles can be of great benefit to fleet operators that mainly operate in urban areas, where driving in stop-and-go traffic is involved, and electric drive technology is particularly suitable for these types of situations. Employing hybrid and pure electric vehicles can help companies save a lot of money on fuel and other operating costs in the long run, so researchers predict that urban fleets in the future will include more and more electric commercial vehicles.