Is America Heading Towards Peak Car?

Mon, 6/4/2018 - 7:54 pm by Kirsten Rincon

Over the past couple of years, a trend toward less driving has been pretty apparent in the United States, fueled by a variety of factors, including the increased use of public transport and rising fuel prices, which raised the question of whether the country has reached “peak car” – a theory that vehicle miles traveled per capita has peaked at a certain point and will only decline from that point on.

According to data from the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), the number of total vehicle miles traveled hit an all-time high in August 2007, going through a rapid decline over the next few months, and keeping a state of no change in the following years. This is why the peak car hypothesis has gained a lot of traction in recent years, with plenty of evidence indicating that driving in America is really on the decline and will probably never reach the levels it had been at up until 2007.

There are a lot of reasons why motor vehicle use in the U.S. is falling. For starters, there is the fact that Millennials have a much different attitude towards driving and owning a car than older generations, increasingly giving up cars in favor of alternative modes of transportation, such as public transit, bicycles, or even walking. This trend may be fueled by the weak economy and the high unemployment rates that have plagued the country over the past few years, along with rising gas prices, but it also reflects a cultural shift among young Americans, with the majority of them no longer considering cars to be a status symbol, putting a much bigger focus on connectivity provided by smartphones and other smart devices, instead.

Although the economic factor played a big role in deterring young people from driving, it seems that it is far from being the only cause behind the potential peak car. While the U.S. economy has been showing signs of recovery in recent years, motor vehicle use has continued to drop, which means that there are other factors at play. One of those factors is definitely the introduction of new transportation options that did not exist a couple of years ago, such as ride sharing. Companies like Uber, Lyft and Sidecar, that offer ride-sharing services in almost every large U.S. city, present a much more convenient and affordable solution than owning a car, especially for young people living in urban areas, who cannot or do not want to deal with the costs and hassle associated with car ownership, but are also not very keen on commuting by bus, train or bicycle.

All the above-mentioned factors have lead to a sharp decline in car sales after car use hit its peak in 2007, dropping by about 20% over the following four years, and the number of registered vehicles in the U.S. falling from 236,448 in 2008 to 230,444 in 2010. These facts can be of great use to policy makers when discussing transportation funding solutions and trying to figure out whether the country’s highway network needs to be expanded, or investment in public transport and development and promotion of other alternative transportation options need to be increased. Judging by the way young Americans feel about cars at the moment, the latter seems to make much more sense.