In the United States, driving rates have been declining recently, which has come as a huge surprise, considering that cars have been helping shape American culture for decades, but various factors, including the economy, as well as the generational shift, with Millennials being far less interested in owning a car or driving compared to the Baby Boomer Generation. However, even though the economic crisis has had a huge impact on demand for cars, it’s not the determining factor, according to a study that was recently published by the RAND Corporation.
The RAND Corporation, in cooperation with the Institute for Mobility Research, did a research to examine the factors that influence personal car use in several countries from different parts of the world and with different levels of economic development. The study found that while wealthier countries do have higher rates of personal automobile use, car travel is not conditioned solely by the financial abilities of consumers, and it’s also affected by government policies.
Researchers analyzed automobile travel in four developing nations: Russia, India, Brazil, and China, and compared the results with data from four developed countries: Germany, Japan, Australia, and the United States. They wanted to try and predict future trends in car usage in developing countries, and found that Brazil is most likely to have highest personal car use rates, followed by Russia, India and China. One of the main takeaways from the study is that countries that are experiencing a significant economic growth, such as China, are not necessarily expected to see a surge in personal car use. Liisa Ecola, lead author of the study and senior project associate at RAND, said that income is not the only factor that influences automobile travel. “Some factors reflect underlying trends, but others can be shaped by policy. So just because the Chinese economy has grown rapidly doesn’t mean that the Chinese will drive as much as Americans in the future,” Ecola said.
There are 9 factors listed in the study that, according to researchers, help determine how much people use cars as a primary mode of transportation. These include:
- car infrastructure, meaning quality of roads and parking;
- fuel price;
- government policies supporting car use;
- a lack of alternatives to driving;
- a population comprised of a large number of working-age residents;
- having domestic oil;
- having a developed domestic car manufacturing industry;
- the geographic dispersion of a nation’s population;
- and the potential existence of a car culture within a country.
Researchers pointed out that although Australia and Japan have high personal income per capita, car use in these countries is far lower compared to the U.S., because of high taxes involved in owning a vehicle, along with limited highway infrastructure, dependence on foreign oil, and high fuel prices.
Finally, the study says that perhaps the most significant factor that affects car use in all countries, no matter the level of economic development, are government policies that can either promote or discourage driving, as opposed to alternative modes of transportation, and policies that influence fuel price.